Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 3.904285 4.305006 4.781625 5.407770 6.239497 7.361686 9.116919
2024-12-29 3.490758 4.000754 4.666789 5.660019 7.248558 10.111624 17.961420
2025-01-05 3.084199 3.595468 4.292412 5.400122 7.371814 11.756558 37.109081
2025-01-12 2.792220 3.287289 3.979457 5.123938 7.313300 13.075053 323.689647
2025-01-19 2.604996 3.094607 3.795430 4.999194 7.479329 15.498799 NaN
2025-01-26 2.527920 3.043627 3.808644 5.204713 8.478669 25.868105 NaN
2025-02-02 2.489730 3.041458 3.892917 5.561569 10.224026 201.365646 NaN
2025-02-09 2.404880 2.960144 3.835291 5.620328 11.200444 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 2.335094 2.894761 3.794696 5.704211 12.459362 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.229230 2.765864 3.630837 5.475057 12.105574 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.169491 2.704844 3.579785 5.498788 13.123772 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.112799 2.644694 3.524018 5.499528 14.114673 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.031123 2.544028 3.393473 5.309096 13.793171 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.004723 2.530003 3.419294 5.522912 17.107075 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.927303 2.429594 3.277198 5.267795 15.842131 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.853532 2.332447 3.136417 5.003145 14.394374 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.801194 2.268042 3.053224 4.883814 14.272056 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.787850 2.265877 3.085323 5.078876 17.877805 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.787777 2.285103 3.159505 5.416803 27.734322 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.760333 2.257311 3.139670 5.472300 34.953861 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.736518 2.234430 3.127722 5.551490 49.857144 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.689589 2.170769 3.030085 5.334948 40.479003 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.664858 2.143917 3.005460 5.357398 53.461779 NaN NaN